Kashepov A.V. Demographic forecasts: historical review and practical use. Bulletin of the Altai Academy of Economics and Law. 2023. No. 5-2. Pp. 233-241.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://vaael.ru/ru/article/view?id=2831 (дата обращения 20.06.2023)

Abstract

The subject of the work is population forecasts, issues of their verification and use. The forecasts of the Russian population are mainly considered. Special attention is paid to the forecasts of the number and composition of the population of the Russian Federation in the period from 1991 to 2022. The initial data are the databases of Rosstat and the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The purpose and objectives of the work are to overcome the attitude to previously developed forecasts, as to the material that, in comparison with current forecasts, does not matter. The retrospective of forecasts not only gives grounds for judgments about the demographic losses of the country in certain historical periods, but also allows us to anticipate possible prospects for the development of the population, to improve the conceptual basis of its forecasting. Verification of officially published forecasts, comparison of prognostic developments from different sources, allows us to develop their methodology and clarify the requirements for them on the part of users – government agencies, science, the expert community, the education system. Conclusions are formulated that may be useful for developers and users of demographic forecasts.