Shabunova A.A., Kroshilin S.V., Yarasheva A.V., Medvedeva E.I. Socio-economic indicators of Russia's national development: trends and forecast. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast. 2024. Vol. 17. No. 5. Pp. 40-54. DOI 10.15838 ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru/article/30106/full?_lang=ru (дата обращения 07.12.2024)

Abstract

The text of the article presents the results of the author's research on the achievability of a number of socio-economic indicators that are stated in the National Development Goals of Russia (NCR) for the period up to 2030. The main goal is to analyze the possibility of achieving the indicators reflected in the NCR by individual federal districts (FD) on the basis of making a forecast and creating an appropriate rating. The object of the study is the Federal Budget of the Russian Federation, the subject is the selected socio–economic indicators of the NCR. The design of the study included three stages: the first was the analysis of available statistical data and the selection of analyzed indicators, the second was the construction of three forecast options (pessimistic, neutral, optimistic), the third was the visualization of the results obtained and the construction of a rating of the achievability of the FO to the declared parameters of the NCR. The information base of the study was compiled by ROSSTAT data (statistical collections "Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators" for 2020-2023), as well as monitoring indicators of the minimum wage for the period from 2013 to 2024. According to the results of the assessment of the NCR's achievability, three groups of FOS were identified: with a high level of achievability (Central Federal District, North Caucasus Federal District), medium (Northwestern Federal District, Southern Federal District, PFD) and low (SFO, Far Eastern Federal District). According to the forecast and the Generalized Rating, by 2030 none of the Federal Districts of the Russian Federation will be able to fully achieve the required level of NCR indicators. The uniqueness and novelty of the results obtained is due to the possibility of comparing the achievability of indicators in different time intervals with the declared value of the NCR. The proposed rating can be vertically and horizontally scaled by expanding the number of analyzed indicators. The author's development and the results obtained are aimed at using data from all levels of legislative and executive authorities in assessing the declared socio-economic parameters of the NCR, including the implementation of other National projects, as well as a wide range of scientists and researchers involved in forecasting and modeling at the macro, meso and micro levels.