Lukyanets A.S., Ryazantsev S.V., Moiseeva E.M. Manshin R.V. The Economic and Social Consequences of Environmental Migration in the Central Asian Countries. Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2020, Vol. 21, Issue 2, pp. 160-176.

Abstract

Nowadays, increasing attention is paid to the impact of environmental change on society and the economies of countries because of the growing frequency and intensity of various adverse natural and man-made phenomena. In addition to their destructive effect on economic and social processes, they lead to the formation of specific migration flows, characterized by suddenness and complexity of forecasting. The article discusses the role of climatic and technological factors in economic, social, and migration processes in the countries of Central Asia. The study proved that, as a result of a steady increase in the population of Central Asian countries, anthropogenic pressure on the environment has significantly increased. The rise in average annual temperatures, which has accelerated with global warming, has an additional negative impact on the environmental situation. The study revealed that adverse environmental changes affect the living standards and working conditions of the rural population to a greater extent than those of urban dwellers. This fact is of particular importance because of the historically established patterns of settlement in the countries of Central Asia, where about half of the population lives in rural areas. For the region, the main negative consequences of global climate change are droughts, floods, desertification, and soil degradation. These processes make it impossible to cultivate crops in certain areas, and this, given the large share of the agricultural sector, leads to additional risks in the form of a slowdown in economic growth and, consequently, a decline in the population’s quality of life. At the same time, the adaptive capacity to counter these risks is quite low on account of social instability, conflicts, difficulties in socio-economic development, and institutional problems in emergency response systems. In recent years, the Central Asian countries have undertaken more and more initiatives in the field of ecology and climate change: projects to preserve mountain ecosystems in Kyrgyzstan, development of solar energy in Uzbekistan and wind energy in Kazakhstan, the establishment of an Ashghabad-based Regional Center for Climate Change Technologies for Central Asia, etc. However, currently there are no specific national or international programs for managing environmental migration, whereas they could significantly reduce the social, economic, and environmental risks caused by population movements under the influence of negative environmental changes.