Zemlyanova E., Ivanova A. Contribution of COVID-19 deaths to increasing depopulation in Russia. The causes and consequences of depopulation. Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2021. 29.11–01.12.2021. URL: https: ...

Текст статьи на сайте конфtренции URL: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute/VID/PDF/Conferences/2021/Posters/B5_extended_abstract_Zemlyanova-Ivanova.pdf (дата обращения 30.12.2021)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemics has lead to higher levels of excess mortality. Negative processes are observed all over the world. Purpose – to estimate impact of the pandemics on components of the demographic dynamics. The authors used the Rosstat short-term data on monthly dynamics in births and deaths including deaths from COVID-19 and other causes for January-December, 2020 and January-March, 2021 for Russia as a whole and Moscow. Results. In 2020 Moscow for the first time in the past years registered population decline, in Russia as a whole the population loss substantially increased: from -2.2‰ in 2019 to -4.8‰ in 2020. Judging by the first quarter of 2021, the problem will further worsen rather than just persist. The source of population decline was, first of all, increase in the number of deaths, and, to a lesser extent, reduction in the number of births. In Russia as a whole the crude mortality rate increased by 19.2%, while the crude birth rate reduced by 3.2%. Along with those who died from COVID-19 as the underlying (primary) cause, mortality from almost all causes (except neoplasms) increased, including due to those cases when COVID-19 was an accompanying disease. Such disease combinations primarily affected increase in mortality from cardio-vascular diseases including from ischaemic heart disease by 15.0%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 6.9%. The significance of the pandemic and its impact on demographic dynamics is not limited to the current period. Since health care in the context of the pandemic was constrained for people with other diseases, it can be expected that the consequences of this will affect the scale and nature of mortality in the future.

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