Safronov V. Contextual Moderation of Anti-Immigrant Motivations to Vote for Radical Right Parties in Europe [Kontekstnaya moderaciya antiimmigrantskih motivacij k golosovaniyu za radikal’nye pravye partii v Evrope]. Vlast’ i elity [Power and Elites], 2021, 8 (2): 134–188. (In Russian)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the examination of societal conditions in European countries, contributing to the success of the radical right parties (RRP) in the parliamentary elections. Previous studies, which often lead to inconsistent results, have not paid enough attention to theoretical discussion and empirical testing of assumptions related to the influence of societal context on the relationship between anti-immigrant attitudes and electoral support for the RRP. An analysis of the European Social Survey data (ESS, recent rounds) and a range of contextual factors that distinguish European countries in terms of economic conditions, immigrant populations, crime, party systems and culture was carried out using statistical methods of two-level logistic modeling. It showed that the negative attitude of the respondents to immigration is the most important reason for their electoral support for radical nationalist parties. This influence is especially pronounced in Western countries, but it can also be found in Eastern Europe. Structural, institutional and cultural factors are only weakly related to the unequal success rates of these parties in the countries studied. The most distinct influences are found when considering party systems. The results show that right-wing radicals succeed when their electoral appeals are legitimized by a shift in the conservativenationalist direction of the main party of the right or the party system as a whole. They also manage to attract more voters when the salience of socio-cultural problems in the party system is high and with a strong polarization of party positions on these problems. A number of contextual factors are moderators of the relationship between the anti-immigrant beliefs of the respondents and the voting for the RPP. Individuals who hold these beliefs are especially willing to vote for radical parties when there are many immigrants in the country or their number is growing rapidly. Another important condition is the advancement of society along the trajectory of post-industrial development. Anti-immigrant motivations for nationalist parties voting intensify with the rise in economic well-being, the expansion of the service sector, the strengthening of the welfare state, and with a cultural shift from anxiety toward growth.