Ryazantsev S.V., Ivanova A.E., Arkhangelsky V.N. Demographic situation in the Tyumen region and the contribution of the Covid-19 pandemic to its transformation. Human capital. 2021. No. 9 (153) P. 81-92.

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Abstract

The peculiarities of overcoming depopulation and the sources of positive dynamics of the natural movement of the population in a demographically prosperous region - the Tyumen region - arethe purpose of this study. The methodology includes the calculation and analysis of demographic indicators of fertility and mortality based on information from the Federal State Statistics Service. Results. A favorable situation with natural population growth was ensured by all three components (fertility, mortality, age and sex structure of the population), but the main positive contribution is made by the age and sex structure of the population. The Tyumen region (excluding the autonomous okrugs) has one of the highest birth rates in the Russian Federation. At the same time, against the background of its decline in 2016-2019, the value of the total fertility rate in the region is less than the envisaged targets of the National Project Demography. Achieving them for subsequent years is possible if the value of this indicator increases, primarily for first and second births. The health problems of the population of the Tyumen region, which determine the lag in life expectancy, are twofold. On the one hand, drug use and related drug use - hepatitis, HIV, tuberculosis combined with HIV, mortality from poisoning, as well as the consequences of drug and alcohol consumption. This problem determines the increased mortality in young and middle ages. On the other hand, diseases of the circulatory system, mainly in the elderly, are a significant problem. And, finally, the third, but by no means by importance, problem is the quality ofdiagnosis of causes of death. As a result of the pandemic in 2020, the Tyumen region (without autonomies) lost 1.4 years of life expectancy of the population, but these losses turned out to be lower than the average for the country and the Urals Federal District. The main increase in mortality, in addition to Covid-19, fell on diseases of the respiratory system and people of the elderly and senile age.