Afzali M., Rostovskaya T. Association between labor force participation rates and the total fertility rate in Iran: gender aspect

Abstract

The influence of economic growth on the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has been widely discussed and demonstrated in many research papers. The labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate as economic indicators play an important role in the TFR dynamics. Different studies have shown that fluctuations in female and male labor force participation rates have either positive or negative impacts on the TFR. In this study, we aim to investigate if there is any positive or negative correlation between female and male labor participation rates and the TFR in Iran. We applied time-series analysis for the period 1991-2019. We used secondary data from official bodies such as Iran’s Ministry of Cooperatives Labor and Social Welfare, the World Bank data, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the International Development Association, the Statistical Center of Iran, and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics to explain the trends in labor force participation rates, unemployment rates, and the TFR. We also applied Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis to measure the strength and direction of these relationships. The results of the study show that the female labor force participation rate has a negative correlation (r = -0.783, sig. = 0.000), and the male labor force participation rate has a positive correlation with the TFR (r = 0.827, sig. = 0.000). Men’s unemployment seems to have a negative correlation (r = -0.366, sig. = 0.050), and women’s unemployment seems to have no correlation with the TFR. Considering the economic problems in Iran, more women will enter the labor market in the nearest future, therefore they postpone their marriage and the TFR will continue to decline.