Kashepov A.V. The balance of labor resources: Traditional and Modern methods of calculation and formation. Social and labor research. 2022. No. 49 (4). Pp. 8-15.

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Abstract

The purpose of the study is to show that the traditional interdisciplinary economic–demographic and macroeconomic method of forming the balance of labor resources works reliably in modern conditions, allowing to link and verify official demographic and macroeconomic forecasts, including the number, structure of the working-age population and gross domestic product production, to find weaknesses and contradictions of these forecasts, to develop forecasts.-warnings about possible risks. The task is to reveal the possibilities of using labor resources to analyze the socio-labor situation in the context of macroeconomic processes - for the purpose of regulating employment and unemployment in the country or regions. The research methods consisted in the analysis of scientific literature, statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), materials of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The results of the review of the methodology of analysis and forecasting of labor resource balances are presented. One of the practical results of the conducted research is a simple and transparent, easily reproducible method of forecasting labor resources, employment and unemployment for the medium and long term, developed and proposed by the author. Forecasts of labor resources, employment and unemployment for the period 2022-2025 have been developed. Conclusions are drawn about the difficulty of anticipating the main macroeconomic parameters of the labor market and employment in the specified period.