Arkhangelskiy V.N., Ryazantsev S.V., Smirnov A.V. Fertility in Real Generations of Women in the Tyumen Oblast (According to the 2020 Census Data). Issues of National and Federative Relations. 2023. Vol. 13. Issue 6 (99). 2023. Pp. 2591-2610. (In Russian). DOI 10.35775 ...

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Abstract

The article analyses the characteristics of fertility in real generations in the Tyumen Oblast based on the data of the All-Russian Population Census in 2020. The study uses both the average number of births in general and indicators differentiated by birth order: the average number of first births, the share of those who gave birth to the second child among those who gave birth to the first child, the share of those who gave birth to the third child among those who gave birth to the second child. The results of the study showed that while the average number of first births in younger generations is decreasing (i.e. the share of those who have no children born), fertility rates for second and third births are increasing after decreasing in older generations. Using the coefficients of variation, the differentiation of fertility rates for real generations in urban districts and municipal districts is estimated. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient equal to 0.25 shows that their differentiation by the average number of children born in real generations is significantly different from the differences in the total fertility rate. Among the urban districts of the Tyumen Oblast, the lowest average number of children born is in Yalutorovsk (due to the low indicator for first births). It is slightly higher in Tyumen and Ishim. Among municipal districts, the lowest average number of children born to women is in the Tyumen and Omutinsk districts, and the highest in the Yarkovsky, Tobolsk and Vagaysky districts.