Rybakovskii O.L. Demographic potential: essence, structure and main factors. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023;19(3):319–326. (In Russ.) DOI https: ...

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Abstract

The purpose of the article is to reveal the essence of the concept of demographic potential, to give it an exhaustive definition, to reveal its structure and to identify the main factors affecting it. After analyzing the history of the term demographic potential and examining modern works on this topic, the author came to the following conclusions. Demographic potential is a generalizing term that includes resources and/or current and future op- portunities and/or additional reserves for the development of demographic processes taking place in a particular territory, as well as (in the case of population migration) and beyond, in the regions associated with migration. Demographic resources are the number and demographic structure of the population of the territory. Demographic opportunities are the levels of intensity of the territory's demographic processes and their demographic consequences, such as changes in demographic structures. Demographic reserves are prospective possible deviations of the intensity levels of demographic processes of the territory and their expected demographic consequences from promising inert trends – under the influence of demo- graphic policy measures, external and internal factors. Depending on what can be invested in the concept of demographic potential, demographic resources, demographic opportunities or demographic reserves, it can be represented as: one of three components; two out of three; all three. In the latter case, there will be a de facto full analysis of the demographic situation with forecasts.The demographic potential includes two parts – repro- ductive and migration potentials, and four components. If the demographic potential is considered as opportunities and/or reserves of demographic processes, then these components are the potential for changes in the intensity of the age-related birth rate of the population, the potential for changes in the intensity of mortality of the population in the gender and age context, the potential for changes in the intensity of permanent arrivals and departures in the geographical context. At the end of the article, the main factors of all components of the demographic potential are given.The purpose of the article is to reveal the essence of the concept of demographic potential, to give it an exhaustive definition, to reveal its structure and to identify the main factors affecting it. After analyzing the history of the term demographic potential and examining modern works on this topic, the author came to the following conclusions. Demographic potential is a generalizing term that includes resources and/or current and future op- portunities and/or additional reserves for the development of demographic processes taking place in a particular territory, as well as (in the case of population migration) and beyond, in the regions associated with migration. Demographic resources are the number and demographic structure of the population of the territory. Demographic opportunities are the levels of intensity of the territory's demographic processes and their demographic consequences, such as changes in demographic structures. Demographic reserves are prospective possible deviations of the intensity levels of demographic processes of the territory and their expected demographic consequences from promising inert trends – under the influence of demo- graphic policy measures, external and internal factors. Depending on what can be invested in the concept of demographic potential, demographic resources, demographic opportunities or demographic reserves, it can be represented as: one of three components; two out of three; all three. In the latter case, there will be a de facto full analysis of the demographic situation with forecasts.The demographic potential includes two parts – repro- ductive and migration potentials, and four components. If the demographic potential is considered as opportunities and/or reserves of demographic processes, then these components are the potential for changes in the intensity of the age-related birth rate of the population, the potential for changes in the intensity of mortality of the population in the gender and age context, the potential for changes in the intensity of permanent arrivals and departures in the geographical context. At the end of the article, the main factors of all components of the demographic potential are given.