Rybakovskii L.L., Fadeeva T.A. Regional Dynamics of the Birth Rate of the Russian Population in the Second Fifteen Years of the 21 st Century. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(2):271–281. https: ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://vcug-journal.ru/index.php/tekushchij-nomer?view=article&layout=edit&id=118 (дата обращения 1.07.2024)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the processes that took place in the 90s in the economic, social and other spheres of life of Russian society and shows their changes that have occurred in the new century. Demographic processes, which experienced a deep crisis for almost the entire 90s, did not stand aside either. Depopulation, caused by both an increase in mortality and a decrease in the birth rate, continued at the beginning of the 21st century, changing only its components: at the beginning of the new century, mortality remained extremely high, while the birth rate had already begun to gradually increase. Urgent measures were needed that could correct the demographic situation in Russia. The article shows that the mid-1990s (2014–2016) was a turning point in the former comparative prosperity in the demographic development of Russia. Since 2016, a period of natural decline has begun again. It became especially significant in 2021–2022. during the coronavirus epidemic. The article provides an analysis of the regional differentiation of fertility dynamics in Russia in the tenth and twenties of the 21st century and the influence of demographic policy measures on them. The improvement in the demographic situation, as well as the onset of depopulation during this period, are associated with two factors – changes in age-specific birth rates and the number of women in reproductive groups. This is characterized based on the dynamics of the total fertility rate for 2002–2022. Formerly in the tenth and early twenties of the 21st century. The dynamics of the number of women in the most active reproductive ages affected the ratio of the rate of decline in the number of births and TFR. In the 20s, the number of women of reproductive age will continue to decline, as evidenced by the figures on the birth rate in the 80s and 90s and the 2020 census data on reproductive ages. The demographic wave that arose in those years had a very significant influence and will continue to influence the number of births in the 20s. But it will not be limited to this time. At the turn of the 40s–50s the wave will make itself known again. To reduce its consequences, it is necessary to adopt a new, well-thought-out demographic policy today.