Sigareva, E. P., Sivoplyasova, S. Yu. (2024) Ob’’ektivnye i sub’’ektivnye faktory demograficheskogo potentsiala zhenskogo naseleniia Rossii [Objective and subjective factors of the demographic potential of the Russian female population], Zhenshchina v rossiĭskom obshchestve, no. 2, pp. 31-42.

Abstract

The article discusses the demographic potential of the female population of Russia. The authors identify objective and subjective factors for its assessment. The first group includes the dynamics of the Russian female population, fertility and marriage rates. The second is the reproductive and marital attitudes of modern Russian women. The authors considered objective factors based on an analysis of data from the 2010 and 2020 All-Russian Population Censuses. Subjective factors were analysed based on the results of sociological surveys, including the author’s survey “Demographic portrait of youth in the EAEU countries: plans, assessments and judgments” and an All-Russian survey conducted by Rosstat. The results showed that the potential of the female population is objectively decreasing. The reproductive part of the female population is declining, the average age of women is increasing, the number of women married and having children is decreasing, and the cohort of women giving birth to their first child at the most active reproductive age (20—24 years) is decreasing. In the future, an absolute decrease in the female population of Russia is expected until 2046. This implies an aggravation of the influence of objective factors on the demographic potential of Russia. The manifestation of the subjective factor that characterizes the reproductive behaviour of the female population of the country lies in the formation of a small family structure. Young women have a less optimistic childhood pattern compared to men. This is closer to the actual realization of reproductive intentions. The rate of abandonment of motherhood continues to rise. In 2022, one in five women who were childless said they had no intention of having a child. In such conditions, only a significant revision of the social and economic foundations of Russian motherhood, including large families, can bring the demographic potential of the female population of Russia onto the path of development.