Semenov A.V. Protsessual'nost' gorodskikh konfliktov: analiz posledovatel'nostey osparivaniya proektov transformatsii gorodskogo prostranstva v Rossii [Proccesuality of Urban Conflicts: Sequence Analysis of Urban Contention in Russia]. The Russian Sociological Review. 2024. Vol. 23. No. 2. Pp. 120–146. (in Russian)

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://sociologica.hse.ru/data/2024/07/01/2122143030/SocOboz%202024-2-120-146.pdf (дата обращения 16.08.2024)

Abstract

Urban conflicts are usually analyzed in a spatial way - as claims by several parties to transform the physical or symbolic aspects of urban space. However, conflicts, by definition, unfold not only in space but also in time: as a sequence of interconnected events of a certain duration. In this article, relying on the “sociology of processuality” by Andrew Abbott and the methodology for conflict episodes analysis, I consider one of the temporal dimensions of urban conflicts - the ordering of actions in time (sequencing). The selection of analytical tools for analyzing event sequences is carried out taking into account their key features: the “path dependency” (dependence of the current situation on past states of the process) and “plurisectality” (repetition of the same stages in an episode of conflict). The analysis of urban conflict episodes serves as an instrument that allows to track the interactions between the challengers (active citizens) and the initiators of urban transformation projects (developers or public authorities), with the addition of a “fourth party” acting as a mediator or ally of the main participants in the conflict. The database of urban conflicts in Russian cities with a population of over a million built in accordance with this logic, makes it possible to examine the sequences more closely and conduct an exploratory analysis of its variation. Collected data on 259 conflicts show that there are significant differences between cities and conflict types in average estimates of duration, length and intensity of conflicts. An analysis of the sequences in conflicts over the development of recreational areas and infill development also indicates significant diversity in the content of conflict episodes, but the common denominator is the active role of citizens and public authorities, with a much smaller share of the actions of developers and the fourth party. Half of the sequences are short (up to 5-6 actions), while long episodes with a large number of actions slightly increase the likelihood of a favorable outcome for residents. The study contributes to the discussion on urban conflict patterns and their temporal aspects.