Kashepov A.V. Wages as an indicator of the development of the Russian economy. Bulletin of the Altai Academy of Economics and Law. 2024. No. 8-3. Pp. 388-396.

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Abstract

The demand for labor, the supply of jobs and, ultimately, the employment of the population are determined by a wide range of macroeconomic factors. The strongest factor is the dynamics of GDP. It was the strong GDP growth in 2023-2024 that caused an increase in sectoral and professional personnel deficits and the formation of a general (systemic, macroeconomic) shortage of labor in the national economy of the Russian Federation. On the part of the labor force, the formation of a systemic shortage of personnel is facilitated by a reduction in the working-age population and an insufficient volume of external labor migration to compensate for this. Unlike unemployment, staff shortages are not directly observed by Rosstat, and the ILO's employment research methodology does not provide for this. However, there are surveys on individual sectors of the economy regarding the number of vacant jobs, estimates of the shortage of personnel by industry made by the Ministry of Labor, comparisons of the numbers of vacancies and job applicants produced by non–governmental employment services - these data are provided in the article. A direct consequence of the shortage of personnel is an increase in wages. It is increasing especially rapidly in the most labor-deficient industries and professions, in particular, in the IT sector. High growth in both nominal and real wages can cause imbalances in the consumer market, and in some industries this can lead to a decrease in the profitability of production. However, as the comparison of wages with labor productivity (GDP per 1 employed person) shows in the article, wages remain underestimated in the Russian economy as a whole, therefore, in the short and medium term, its increase may have mainly positive socio–economic consequences.