Ivanova A.E., Starodubov V.I. Healthy life expectancy in the context of demographic forecasts. Social'nye aspekty zdorov'a naselenia [serial online] 2024; 70(4):5. Available from: http: ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/1627/30/lang,ru/ (дата обращения 10.10.2024)

Abstract

Significance. The relevance of the study is related to the need to develop adequate tools for assessing and monitoring achievements of the national demographic goals. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the association of age and loss of health in the context of the forecast on aging of the Russian population. Material and methods. A comparative assessment of the Rosstat demographic forecast options until 2045 was carried out from the standpoint of analyzing the pace of demographic ageing; data of the Rosstat sample observation on the quality and accessibility of services in the field of education, health, social services, and employment conducted in 2019 were used; indicators characterizing various aspects of health loss were selected. The relationship between the criteria of ill health was investigated using factor analysis methods and a generalized indicator “quality of life from the standpoint of health” was offered: Using the Sullivan method, an assessment of healthy life expectancy and losses associated with ill health was carried out: first, using each criterion separately, then using the generalized indicator. Results. It has been established that under any demographic forecast scenario, the population over the working age will grow at the maximum rate - under the most favorable option from the point of view of population dynamics. At the same time, there will be a progressive ageing of the elderly population with a higher increase in people aged 85 and older. The use of various criteria for assessing ill health results in significant variability in healthy life expectancy. If we are to take into account the criteria characterizing the most severe conditions of health loss: 1 and 2 group disability; significant limitations of life activities; self-rated health as “poor” and “very poor”, etc., then they provide more precise estimates of the loss of healthy life expectancy. The use of the generalized indicator based on three criteria increases the loss of high-quality life expectancy according to the criterion of health by 2.5-3 years. Scope of application. The results can be applied to the assessment and monitoring of healthy life expectancy at the national and regional levels