Kashepov A.V. Prospects of the Russian economy and employment in 2025. Bulletin of the Altai Academy of Economics and Law. 2025. No. 3-1. Pp. 67-76.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://vaael.ru/ru/article/view?id=4029 (дата обращения 31.03.2025)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of an estimated forecast of employment and unemployment in the Russian Federation for 2025. The relevance of the article is determined by the following circumstances: the absence of some key labor market indicators in officially published forecasts, the extrapolation nature of most of these forecasts and their chronic unreliability. The article uses the balance of labor resources as the main forecasting method, which allows combining the demographic forecast of the population and the economic forecast of gross domestic product dynamics. The materials used are Rosstat data, prognostic and program documents of the Russian Government, and expert publications. The results of the work are an analysis of the macroeconomic situation in 2023-2024 – strong economic growth associated with inflation, a strong increase in demand in the labor market, the formation of a systemic shortage of personnel, an increase in wages and a decrease in unemployment. The demographic basis of the labor market is also being analyzed – the decline in the working-age population, the uncertainty of the migration situation. Based on this analysis, an estimate of the number of employed and unemployed and the unemployment rate for 2025 is being developed. It is concluded that during the current year, the situation on the Russian labor market will be quite sluggish, with the main trends of 2023-2024 developing, then new geopolitical factors related to possible reductions in defense spending, the number of people employed in the armed forces and the defense industry, and structural changes in employment. There will be a general shortage of personnel, and no increase in unemployment is predicted.