Phantom of «Revolutionary Situation»: Protest Actions and Protest Moods of Modern Russians

Abstract

The article is devoted to the possibility of "revolutionary situation" in modern Russia. The dynamics of mass protests is analyzed. The analysis is based on data of all-Russian surveys carried out by Institute of Sociology RAN (with focus on the last wave conducted in early spring of 2016). It is shown that in the nearest future (a year or two) only a "phantom" of "revolutionary situation" will exist in Russia. That means that mass protests will remain only as a potential threat rather than a reality. This conclusion is based on survey data on actual participation and willingness of population to participate in protests. According to the survey, in 2015 there was moderate level of personal participation in various protests.Modern protest actions are mainly economic in their nature – population is mostly protest against employment layoffs, rising prices, etc., but not against the government. A paradox exists: on the one hand, many protest against the existing socio-economic "rules of the game", but this protest is not consolidated; on the other hand, protest against the existing political institutions have leaders (liberal opposition), but it is much less massive. At the same time, a dangerous phenomenon of relatively high volatility of the protest activity should be noted – Russian citizens are able to respond to "annoying" events with abrupt change of their socio-political preferences.