Latov Yu. V. The Specter of a «Revolutionary Situation»: Protest Actions and Protest Sentiments in Russia Today. Social Sciences. A Quarterly Journal of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2017, Vol.48, ¹2, pp. 62-79.

Abstract

Based on a nationwide survey conducted by the RAS Institute of Sociology in monitoring mode, the odds are assessed of a «revolutionary situation» arising in modern Russia, i.e., a growth of mass grassroots protests. Analysis of the results of a survey carried out in early spring of 2016 and their comparison with the previous «waves» of the survey show that in the near term (the next year or two) a «revolutionary situation» in Russia will remain only a distant menace and mass protest actions will be only a potential threat, not a tangible reality. This conclusion is bolstered by the fact that 2015 saw only a moderate level of personal participation in various protest actions. Besides, current protest actions are prompted mainly by economic factors as people protest against loss of jobs, price growth, etc., not against the government. A paradox is observed: While many protest against the current socioeconomic «rules of the game», their protest is not consolidated; protest against existing political institutions has its «leaders» (the liberal opposition), but this protest has a far narrower base. At the same time, a dangerous phenomenon is the high volatility of protest activities as Russian citizens, when provoked by «irritating» developments, are prone to instantly switching their sociopolitical allegiances.

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