Utyasheva I.B., Prudnikov V.B., Shamsutdinova N.K. Territorial characteristics of the trends of demographic development of the Republic of Bashkortostan

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Abstract

The purpose of the research project was to study the demographic trends in the population of the Republic of Bashkortostan in terms of urban and rural population, as well as for urban districts. Our conclusions prove the strengthening of territorial differences in socio-economic and demographic development in the republic. There is a concentration of working-age population in highly developed territories (agglomerations). The forecast, which is based on the cohort-component method, shows that the urban population may only increase in case of favorable trends in mortality and fertility. It is expected, however, that the urban districts of the republic would not grow in terms of population due to depopulation trends (positive migration growth was in the last years observed only in the urban districts of Ufa, Sterlitamak and Oktyabrsky). The migration will be, therefore, of major importance, not only for rural population, but also for urban one, including for the population of Ufa - the largest city of the Republic and its capital. The results of the research can be used in planning of the spatial development of the territories in the republic within the framework of the Strategy 2030 of social and economic development of Bashkortostan.