Ryazantsev S.V., Ivanova A.E., Arkhangelsky V.N. Increasing Depopulation in Russia in The Context of The Covid-19 Pandemic: Regional Features. Bulletin of the South-Russian State Technical University (NPI) Series Socio-Economic Sciences. Vol. 14. No 2. Pp. 7-20.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://vestnik.npi-tu.ru/index.php/vestnikSRSTU/article/view/1046/1038 (дата обращения 16.07.2021)

Abstract

The purpose of the study. The article examines the demographic situation in Russia in 2020 in the context of the second wave of depopulation, aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.The research methods include the analysis and calculation of data on the current registration of births, deaths and migration on the basis of data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Civil Registry Office of the City of Moscow, as well as the Main Department for Migration of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia.The results of the study. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a new factor of depopulation in Russia, primarily due to an increase in mortality and a decrease in migration mobility of the population. The new wave of depopulation in Russia is under double pressure: on the one hand, these are traditional factors of changing demographic trends, and on the other hand, the extreme effect of the COVID-19 pandemic factor. As a result of excessive mortality in 2020, against the background of the pandemic, the long-term positive trend of life expectancy growth in Russia was interrupted, which persisted even during the crisis periods of 2008–2009 and after 2014. The main contribution to the decline in the overall birth rate is made by changes in the gender and age structure of the population — the active reproductive age includes small generations born in the 1990s. The dynamics of birth rates significantly differ in the order of birth, has the influence of a structural factor. A favorable trend in the number of women of reproductive age occurs at the age of 35 (the number of births in Russia increased until 1987), in which the proportion of third and subsequent births is significantly higher than that of younger women. In the modern conditions of Russia, it is necessary to look for a way out in strengthening the contribution of the migration component to the demographic dynamics. First of all, it is necessary to increase the re-emigration of Russians from the countries of the former USSR.Research prospects. The second wave of depopulation requires the development of new demographic and migration policies that will help compensate for the decline in the population in Russia. To get out of the second wave of depopulation, a science based national demographic program is required.