Kozlova O.A., Arkhangelsky V.N. Fertility Forecast in Russia: Approaches, Hypotheses, Results. Vestnik RAN. 2021. Vol. 91. No. 9. Pp. 845-855. DOI: 10.31857 ...

Abstract

Forecasts of the size and age and sex composition of the population are one of the most important applied results of demographic research. Taking them into account is necessary when developing strategies and programs for the socio-economic development of the country and its territories. The most difficult to predict component in demographic forecasts is the dynamics of fertility rates, which, as a rule, are a consequence of the reproductive behavior of the population, influenced by various objective and subjective factors. The purpose of the study was to construct a birth rate forecast based on calendar indicators for real generations of Russians. The possibilities and limitations of the main approaches to forecasting the birth rate are determined. An overview of trends in the dynamics of calendar fertility rates for real generations is given. A hypothesis is formulated, which seems to the authors the most probable, about the possible reasons for changes in the total fertility rate by birth order until 2030, caused by timing shifts in the calendar of births. A forecast of fertility rates in real generations up to 2035 was constructed. On its basis, a direct conversion into age and total fertility rates using the distribution of one-year fertility rates was made. It has been established that the total fertility rate calculated in this way in Russia in 2050 may be 1.77.